Revenge is on the menu at the Super Pit. North Texas welcomes Memphis to Denton on Thursday, February 12th, at 9:00 PM EST in an American Conference rematch that carries significant weight for the Mean Green’s postseason hopes. The Tigers took the first meeting 57-48 at FedExForum on December 31st, controlling tempo and holding North Texas to its lowest scoring output of conference play. Now the Mean Green, armed with the nation’s seventh-ranked turnover-forcing defense, get their shot at redemption on home hardwood, where they defeated Memphis 76-66 in their last Super Pit meeting back in February 2024.
| Metric | Memphis | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Conf) | 12-11 (7-4) | 13-11 (4-7) |
| Points Per Game | 75.0 (216th) | 70.6 (303rd) |
| Points Allowed/G | 72.6 (150th) | 66.2 (22nd) |
| Defensive Rating | 101.3 (67th) | 97.4 (29th) |
| Offensive Rating | 104.7 (286th) | 103.8 (301st) |
| Steals Per Game | 9.4 (16th) | 9.9 (7th) |
Market Analysis
The consensus has installed Memphis as a slim 1.5-point road favorite with juice slightly favoring the home underdog at -118. Fair win probability calculations show this as a near coin-flip, with Memphis at 51.83% and North Texas at 48.17%. The total sits at 134.5 points, reflecting both teams’ defensive identities and the likelihood of a grind-it-out affair similar to the first meeting’s 57-48 final. The tight spread acknowledges North Texas’s elite defensive profile while respecting Memphis’s recent momentum and superior conference standing.
Turnover Battle Tilts Toward The Mean Green
North Texas leads the American Conference with 9.9 steals per game, ranking seventh nationally in that category. The Mean Green’s five starters alone average 7.15 steals per contest, more than the entire rosters of eight conference opponents. This disruptive capability poses a direct threat to Memphis, which relies heavily on ball movement and transition opportunities. Point guard David Terrell Jr. has been the catalyst, averaging 2.3 steals over his last nine games while also posting 15.3 points and 4.6 assists per contest. Cole Franklin’s emergence since entering the starting lineup on December 14th has added another defensive presence, with the 6-foot-4 guard averaging 11.3 points on 56.8% shooting since January 21st. If North Texas can force Memphis into half-court possessions and limit transition opportunities, the Mean Green’s defensive rankings suggest they can keep this game tight.
Memphis Depth Versus North Texas Discipline
The Tigers counter with the American Conference’s deepest bench, averaging 33.9 points per game from reserves, which ranks 13th nationally. Six different players scored in double figures against Charlotte last Sunday, showcasing the balanced attack that has fueled consecutive double-digit victories. Aaron Bradshaw anchors the interior, shooting a conference-best 62.2% from the field in league play while providing rim protection. Dug McDaniel remains one of only three Division I players with 100-plus assists, 50-plus steals, and 35-plus three-pointers this season, giving Memphis a versatile floor general. The Tigers have recorded at least 10 steals and five blocks in seven games this season, the most in the American Conference. Memphis controlled the first meeting by dictating pace and limiting North Texas to 48 points, but replicating that performance inside the hostile Super Pit presents a different challenge. North Texas’s 29th-ranked defensive rating and home court advantage create a scenario where the Mean Green’s physical style could neutralize Memphis’s depth advantage.