No. 23 Saint Louis arrives at UD Arena on Tuesday, February 24th, at 7 p.m. EST, chasing history. A victory would mark the first 26-2 start in program history for a Billikens squad that leads the nation in defensive efficiency and scoring margin. Standing in their path is a Dayton team riding a three-game winning streak, anchored by one of the most disruptive defenses in the Atlantic 10. The Flyers force 15.3 turnovers per game (10th nationally) and rank second in the conference with 8.9 steals per contest, creating a fascinating tension between Saint Louis’s precision offensive machine and Dayton’s chaos-inducing pressure.
| Metric | Saint Louis Billikens | Dayton Flyers |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Conf) | 25-2 (13-1) | 18-9 (9-5) |
| Points Per Game | 90.1 (5th) | 76.1 (174th) |
| Points Allowed | 68.1 (44th) | 71.0 (102nd) |
| Offensive Rating | 123.1 (9th) | 109.2 (199th) |
| Defensive Rating | 93.0 (1st) | 101.8 (71st) |
| 3-Point % | 40.8% (2nd) | 33.7% (209th) |
| Field Goal % | 51.7% (4th) | 45.0% (197th) |
| Steals/G | 7.6 (101st) | 8.9 (24th) |
| Total Rebounds/G | 41.9 (6th) | 33.0 (300th) |
| Turnovers/G | 12.6 (276th) | 12.0 (215th) |
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Key Advantage
Saint Louis’s 93.0 defensive rating ranks first nationally, while Dayton’s 109.2 offensive rating sits outside the top 190. The Billikens hold opponents to 36.3% shooting – best in the country – against a Flyers offense converting at just 45.0%. The -5.5 spread reflects this structural imbalance.
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Market Analysis
The consensus line of Saint Louis -5.5 with a total of 155.5 suggests the market anticipates a competitive but offensively productive Atlantic 10 clash. The implied win probability of roughly 67% for the Billikens aligns with their elite statistical profile, though the narrow spread relative to their efficiency dominance raises questions about situational factors. Dayton’s home-court advantage at UD Arena, where tickets have sold out, compresses what would otherwise be a double-digit line against most opponents.
The over/under at 155.5 creates an interesting tension. Saint Louis averages 90.1 points per game (fifth nationally) and has cracked the 88-point threshold in consecutive outings. Yet Dayton’s defensive identity centers on disruption rather than containment, forcing turnovers at a rate that could either fuel transition baskets or stall offensive rhythm entirely. The Flyers’ 71.0 points allowed per game ranks a modest 102nd nationally, but their 101.8 defensive rating (71st) improves upon that raw figure when adjusting for pace and competition.
Saint Louis coach Josh Schertz has built a unit that spreads the floor with exceptional shooting – 40.8% from three-point range as a team, second nationally – while protecting the defensive glass at an elite level (31.0 defensive rebounds per game, first nationally). The Billikens allow opponents to collect just 21.6 defensive rebounds per game, a figure that speaks to their dominance on the glass and ability to terminate possessions. This creates a structural advantage against a Dayton squad that ranks 318th nationally in offensive rebounding.
The Turnover Battle and Saint Louis’s Ball Security
Dayton’s path to competitiveness runs through De’Shayne Montgomery and Javon Bennett, who spearhead a backcourt that generates 8.9 steals per game and forces 15.3 turnovers. Montgomery ranks 10th nationally with 65 steals, while Bennett has emerged as the Flyers’ primary offensive engine with 15.9 points and 82 assists on the season. The question is whether this pressure translates against a Saint Louis offense that commits just 12.6 turnovers per game and ranks seventh nationally with 19.0 assists per contest.
The Billikens’ ball movement, orchestrated by center Robbie Avila’s remarkable 4.2 assists per game (first among Division I centers), neutralizes defensive pressure through quick decision-making and elite spacing. Trey Green and Ishan Sharma combine for 5.6 three-pointers per game at a composite 45.7% clip, stretching defenses beyond recovery. If Dayton’s gambling tendencies create open looks rather than live-ball turnovers, Saint Louis’s offensive machine could approach its season average despite the road environment.
Dayton’s recent form offers cautious optimism. Sophomore Amael L’Etang captured A-10 co-Player of the Week honors after back-to-back dominant performances, posting a stat line against Duquesne (10-plus points, 10-plus rebounds, five-plus assists, zero turnovers) that has been achieved only twice in program history since 2005. His emergence provides interior balance to Dayton’s perimeter-focused attack, though the Flyers remain overmatched against Saint Louis’s frontcourt depth and defensive discipline.
Home Court and Historical Context at UD Arena
Dayton leads the all-time series 44-31, though Saint Louis’s current iteration bears little resemblance to the programs that shaped that history. The Flyers have won three straight games by double digits, including a 78-66 victory over Duquesne that showcased their defensive identity. Yet the step up in competition from the Dukes to the nation’s most efficient defense presents a qualitatively different challenge.
The sellout crowd at UD Arena creates genuine atmospheric pressure, one that Saint Louis has largely avoided this season while compiling a 13-1 conference record. The Billikens’ lone defeat came at home against a quality opponent, suggesting their road resolve remains untested in hostile environments. Their response to Dayton’s turnover-forcing pressure and crowd noise will reveal whether their statistical dominance translates to high-league moments away from Chaifetz Arena.
Saint Louis’s defensive metrics travel: holding opponents to 36.3% shooting and 27.7% from three-point range requires scheme discipline rather than home-court energy. The Billikens have allowed just 68.1 points per game despite playing at a pace that generates 90.1 points on the other end. This defensive reliability, combined with their elite shooting and rebounding, creates a floor that Dayton’s variance-dependent style struggles to match.