Wichita State’s 81-68 win over Tulsa two weeks ago in the AAC Tournament carries direct relevance into tonight’s NIT quarterfinal at the Donald W. Reynolds Center. The Shockers held Tulsa’s David Green to 16 points on 6-of-16 shooting while Kenyon Giles erupted for 27. That result forces Tulsa to prove its home-floor advantage; the Golden Hurricane are 15-2 at home this season, and can avenge the loss from earlier in March. Tip-off is tonight, March 24, at 7 p.m. EDT on ESPN2.
| Metric | Wichita St Shockers | Tulsa Golden Hurricane |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Conf) | 24-11 (13-5) | 28-7 (13-5) |
| Points Per Game | 78.1 (119th) | 85.4 (15th) |
| Points Allowed | 70.4 (79th) | 73.1 (154th) |
| Offensive Rating | 113.3 (95th) | 122.5 (7th) |
| Defensive Rating | 102.2 (66th) | 104.8 (122nd) |
| 3-Point % | 34.6% (154th) | 38.3% (15th) |
| Field Goal % | 44.4% (232nd) | 47.3% (61st) |
| Total Rebounds/G | 41.5 (6th) | 38.7 (40th) |
| Assists/G | 11.6 (334th) | 15.5 (88th) |
| Turnovers/G | 10.4 (73rd) | 10.7 (104th) |
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Key Advantage
Perimeter Firepower: Tulsa’s 38.3% three-point shooting and 10.5 attempts per game face a Wichita State defense allowing 31.3% from deep. If Tulsa’s shooters find rhythm early, the Golden Hurricane’s offensive volume compounds against a defense built to protect the paint.
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Market Analysis
The -3.5 spread with Tulsa carrying -113 juice implies roughly 61% win probability for the Golden Hurricane, a pricing that acknowledges their home dominance without fully pricing out Wichita State’s head-to-head advantage. The 152.5 sits below the combined offensive output these teams bring; Tulsa’s 85.4 points per game is the driving force. The market is essentially asking whether Tulsa’s home-court energy can overcome a matchup that already tilted toward the Shockers once this month.
Giles vs. Green: The Rematch Within the Rematch
Wichita State’s Kenyon Giles torched Tulsa for 27 points in the AAC Tournament, shooting 9-of-15 from the field and 6-of-10 from three. That performance was not a variance; it was the culmination of a season in which Giles carried the Shockers’ offense, averaging 19.3 points per game on 41.3% three-point shooting. Tulsa’s perimeter defense, which allows 31.3% from deep, is solid but not elite; Giles has proven he can generate clean looks against this backcourt.
David Green represents Tulsa’s counter. The Golden Hurricane forward averages 16.1 points per game on 50.1% shooting, but Wichita State held him to 16 points on 37.5% in their first meeting. Green’s efficiency relies on interior positioning and free-throw generation; he attempts 6.7 free throws per game. Wichita State’s physical front line, anchored by 6-foot-10 center Will Berg, limited Green’s rim attempts and forced him into contested mid-range looks. If Tulsa cannot unlock Green earlier in possessions, their offensive rhythm stalls.
Rebound Control and Possession Volume
Wichita State’s 41.5 rebounds per game rank sixth nationally, a product of top offensive glass work – 14.7 offensive rebounds per game, fourth in Division I. Tulsa’s 38.7 rebounds per game is respectable but trails significantly. The Shockers generate second-chance possessions that extend scoring opportunities even when their perimeter shooting goes cold; their 44.4% field goal percentage is middling, but their offensive rebounding creates extra attempts that mask inefficiency.
Tulsa’s path to covering the -3.5 requires compressing possession volume. The Golden Hurricane force only 10.7 turnovers per game, below the national median, and with 2.4 blocks per game, they do not generate defensive stops through rim protection or steals. Instead, Tulsa relies on offensive efficiency: 47.3% field goal shooting and top free-throw conversion at 77.6%. If Wichita State’s rebounding dominance persists, Tulsa must shoot at an unsustainable clip to overcome the possession deficit.