Purdue’s Braden Smith broke the NCAA all-time assist record earlier this tournament, and the Boilermakers’ ball-movement offense enters the SAP Center in San Jose as the most efficient unit remaining. Texas counters with a scoring attack that has recovered from late-season struggles, averaging 82.9 points per game behind sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis. The Longhorns could be without senior guard Jordan Pope, who suffered an ankle injury against Gonzaga. Tonight at 7:10 p.m. EDT, the No. 2 seed Boilermakers face the No. 11 seed Longhorns with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.
| Metric | Texas Longhorns | Purdue Boilermakers |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Conf) | 21-14 (9-9) | 29-8 (13-7) |
| Points Per Game | 82.9 (36th) | 82.2 (48th) |
| Points Allowed | 76.1 (239th) | 70.1 (72nd) |
| Offensive Rating | 119.4 (23rd) | 125.4 (2nd) |
| Defensive Rating | 109.6 (240th) | 107.0 (184th) |
| 3-Point % | 35.2% (107th) | 38.8% (10th) |
| Assists/G | 12.5 (284th) | 19.9 (3rd) |
| Turnovers/G | 10.8 (120th) | 9.0 (11th) |
| Defensive Rebounds/G | 25.7 (90th) | 24.1 (207th) |
| Field Goal % | 48.3% (34th) | 50.3% (9th) |
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Key Advantage
Ball Movement: Purdue’s 19.9 assists per game, third nationally, exploits Texas’s 284th-ranked assist defense. Watch whether Texas can disrupt Smith’s pick-and-roll rhythm or if Purdue’s passing generates open looks at the rim and from three.
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Market Analysis
The market prices Purdue at roughly 78% to win, with a -8.5 spread and a 147.5 total, reflecting a significant gap in perceived quality between the No. 2 and No. 11 seeds. The -8.5 sits well above Purdue’s raw scoring margin, indicating the books are pricing tournament experience and offensive output as compounding factors beyond the efficiency numbers alone.
Texas’s 76.1 points allowed is the defensive vulnerability that explains why the total remains elevated despite both teams preferring a methodical pace.
Smith’s Record-Breaking Passing Attacks Texas’s Disjointed Defense
Braden Smith’s 8.0 assists per game in the tournament have Purdue’s offense operating at peak efficiency, and the Boilermakers’ 50.3% field goal shooting converts those opportunities at a top clip. Texas’s defense allows opponents to shoot 44.7% from the field and 35.2% from three, marks that sit outside the top 200 nationally. The Longhorns force turnovers at the second-lowest rate in Division I, 9.2 per game, which leaves their defense exposed in the half-court.
The Longhorns’ defensive rebounding is their one reliable strength at 25.7 per game. But Purdue’s offensive rebounding is not its primary weapon; instead, the Boilermakers rely on shot quality generated through Smith’s passing. Texas’s 284th-ranked assist defense suggests they struggle to anticipate and disrupt ball movement, a fatal flaw against an offense that leads the country in assist rate.
Vokietaitis Provides Texas’s Interior Counter
Matas Vokietaitis has emerged as Texas’s tournament offensive weapon, averaging 20.3 points and 12.5 rebounds across three NCAA games after a 23-point, 16-rebound performance against BYU. The 7-foot sophomore provides interior scoring that complements Dailyn Swain’s 17.4 points per game on the wing. Purdue’s interior defense allows 53.2% on two-point shots, a vulnerability that Vokietaitis is built to exploit.
However, Texas’s perimeter attack is limited. The Longhorns shoot 35.2% from three and generate only 7.3 three-point attempts per game. Without Pope, who averages 13.1 points and provides secondary ball-handling, Texas’s offensive creation falls heavily on Swain and Vokietaitis. Purdue’s 9.0 turnovers per game suggest they will not gift Texas easy transition opportunities. The Boilermakers’ defensive discipline in the half-court forces opponents to execute in the teeth of their set defense, a scenario that favors Purdue’s superior offensive efficiency.