The Cincinnati Reds ride a two-game winning streak into Queens on Tueaday night, May 26, at 7:11 p.m. EDT, having taken the series opener 7-2 behind six strong innings from Nick Lodolo. The New York Mets carry a four-game skid into this rematch, with their offense managing just three runs across the last three contests. Cincinnati’s Chase Burns toes the rubber with top surface numbers; the Mets counter with an unannounced starter in a bullpen game scenario that amplifies late-inning variance.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | New York Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Away/Home) | 28-25 (14-13) | 22-32 (11-14) |
| Runs Per Game | 4.40 (13th) | 3.96 (25th) |
| Runs Allowed | 4.78 (25th) | 3.83 (11th) |
| Batting Average | .227 (26th) | .227 (25th) |
| On-Base Percentage | .310 (24th) | .293 (28th) |
| Slugging Percentage | .393 (8th) | .350 (30th) |
| Home Runs | 66 (5th) | 46 (22nd) |
| ERA | 4.78 (25th) | 3.90 (11th) |
| WHIP | 1.46 | 1.28 |
| Stolen Bases | 42 (11th) | 27 (21st) |
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Key Advantage
Starting Pitching: Cincinnati’s Chase Burns owns a 1.83 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 59 innings, while the Mets have no announced starter and likely deploy a bullpen game. The Reds’ rotation advantage compounds across six innings before either bullpen enters.
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Market Analysis
The market prices Cincinnati at -1.5 (+142) on the run line with a 7.5 total, implying roughly 52% win probability for the Reds and a tight moneyline near -122. The -1.5 spread asks Cincinnati to win by multiple runs in a park that has played slightly pitcher-friendly this season, a meaningful ask given the Reds’ 4.40 runs scored against the Mets’ 3.83 runs allowed. The 7.5 total highlights both Chase Burns’ league-leading ERA and the Mets’ strong team ERA, while also factoring in the uncertainty surrounding New York’s pitching plans.
Burns’s top Surface Numbers Meet Mets’ Offensive Void
Cincinnati’s Chase Burns arrives with a 6-1 record and 1.83 ERA that leads the rotation, backed by 64 strikeouts against 18 walks in 59 innings. The right-hander’s 0.95 WHIP indicates clean innings that limit traffic, a critical factor against a Mets lineup hitting .227 with a .293 on-base percentage. Burns’s ability to suppress early scoring compresses the game state before Cincinnati’s bullpen enters.
The Mets’ offense has cratered during this four-game losing streak, scoring two runs or fewer in three of those contests. New York’s .350 slugging percentage ranks last in the majors, and the team has just 46 home runs against Cincinnati’s 66. Without Juan Soto in the lineup due to illness, the Mets lose their top OPS producer and primary left-handed threat. Soto’s absence leaves a hole in the middle of the order that Burns can exploit with his strikeout-heavy approach.
Bullpen Game Uncertainty and Late-Inning Variance
The Mets’ decision to start an undecided pitcher signals a bullpen game that will tax a relief corps already handling heavy workloads. New York’s 3.90 team ERA masks potential fatigue in the middle innings, where multiple relievers must cover five or more frames. Cincinnati’s offense, which slugged .393 and hit two home runs in Sunday’s 7-2 win, faces diminished resistance once Burns exits.
The Reds’ own bullpen carries a 4.78 team ERA that, creating a late-inning vulnerability if the Mets extend the game. However, Cincinnati’s 42 stolen bases provide a pressure mechanism against catchers who may prioritize pitch-calling over controlling the running game. The Reds’ aggressive basepaths could manufacture runs without relying on the home run ball against a depleted Mets staff.