The Cincinnati Reds (67-61) face the Arizona Diamondbacks (62-66) on Friday, August 22, 2025, at 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona. This National League matchup features two teams with differing postseason aspirations. The Reds are surging and are on the heels of the New York Mets for the final Wildcard playoff spot, while the Diamondbacks are further back but still within striking distance.
Pitching Matchup
Cincinnati Reds: Zack Littell (9-8, 3.52 ERA)
Littell has been a reliable arm for the Reds, posting a 3.52 ERA over 25 starts this season. In his most recent outing, he allowed just one run over six innings, demonstrating his ability to keep games close. However, Littell has struggled historically against the Diamondbacks, with a 7.99 ERA in his career against them, including six earned runs in six innings this season. His season-long metrics show a WHIP of 1.113 and a modest 6.1 K/9, indicating he relies on control rather than overpowering hitters. Littell has gone over 17.5 pitcher outs in 72% of his starts this season, averaging 18.1 outs, making him a candidate for a deep outing if he can avoid Arizona’s power bats.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Ryne Nelson (6-3, 3.58 ERA)
Nelson has been a steady presence for the Diamondbacks, with a 3.58 ERA across 113 2/3 innings in 26 appearances (16 starts). In his last start against the Colorado Rockies, he allowed four earned runs over 6 1/3 innings, but he has five quality starts this season and has gone five or more innings in his last seven outings. Nelson’s opponents are batting .215 against him, and he boasts a 7.9 K/9 rate. Notably, he has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts against teams with winning records, which bodes well against the Reds. This will be his second career start against Cincinnati, giving him a slight edge in unfamiliarity.
Team Analysis
Cincinnati Reds
Offense: The Reds rank 11th in MLB with 581 runs scored (4.5 per game) and 22nd with 127 home runs. Their .248 batting average and .318 OBP place them 16th and 14th, respectively. Elly De La Cruz leads the way with 19 home runs, 76 RBIs, and 31 stolen bases, ranking T6th in MLB for steals. Noelvi Marte is on an 11-game hitting streak, and Miguel Andujar has been productive, hitting a home run in three of the Reds’ last five games as underdogs against NL opponents. However, the Reds strike out 8.5 times per game, which could be exploited by Nelson’s strikeout ability.
Pitching: Cincinnati’s pitching staff has a 3.79 ERA (10th in MLB) and a 1.203 WHIP. Their bullpen has been solid, with a 68.0% save percentage (9th in MLB), but they’ve allowed 71 home runs, which could be a concern against Arizona’s power-heavy lineup.
Recent Form: The Reds are coming off a 2-1 loss to the Los Angeles Angels, but they’ve been playing well recently, with a 31-32 road record. They’ve covered the run line in each of the last eight games against the Diamondbacks, showing their ability to keep games close.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Offense: Arizona ranks fifth in MLB with 628 runs scored (4.9 per game) and fifth with 178 home runs. Their .251 batting average and .325 OBP rank eighth and sixth, respectively. Corbin Carroll leads with 27 home runs and 65 RBIs, while Geraldo Perdomo has 81 RBIs, ranking 16th in MLB. Ketel Marte’s .394 OBP is fourth among qualified players. The Diamondbacks have been hot at the plate, particularly at home, where they led MLB with a .345 wOBA and scored 47 more runs than any other team.
Pitching: Arizona’s pitching staff struggles with a 4.55 ERA (25th in MLB), and their bullpen has been unreliable, often making games closer than necessary. However, Nelson’s consistency provides a stabilizing force. The Diamondbacks rank 21st in K/9 (8.1), which could allow the Reds’ offense to make contact.
Recent Form: Arizona is coming off a win against the Cleveland Guardians, improving to 32-31 at home. They’ve gone 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 games but have failed to cover the run line in their last six night games against NL Central opponents following a home win.
Key Betting Trends
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The Reds have covered the run line in each of their last eight games against the Diamondbacks.
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The Diamondbacks have won only 3 of their last 7 games as moneyline favorites.
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Six of the Reds’ last seven games against NL West opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
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Each of the Diamondbacks’ last four games against NL Central opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
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The underdogs have covered the run line in each of the last eight Reds-Diamondbacks matchups.