The St. Louis Cardinals (66-69) face the Cincinnati Reds (68-66) in the first game of a three-game series at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, on Friday, August 29, 2025, at 6:40 p.m. ET, airing on FDSOH and FDSMW. Both teams are clinging to fading National League Wild Card hopes, with the Reds 4.0 games back and the Cardinals 6.5 games out. This NL Central matchup features a pitching duel between Matthew Liberatore and Zack Littell, with Cincinnati’s home-friendly park and recent trends shaping the betting landscape.
Below, we break down the odds, key matchups, player props, and expert picks for tonight’s game.
Team Overview
St. Louis Cardinals (66-69, 29-37 Away)
The Cardinals are coming off a 4-1 win over the Pittsburgh Pirates, splitting a four-game series. They’ve struggled on the road (29-37) and are 2-4 in their last six games, with losses in five of their last six games following a home win. St. Louis ranks 16th in runs scored (584, 4.4 per game), 27th in home runs (126), and 16th in batting average (.248). Their pitching staff has a 4.31 ERA (21st) and a 1.30 WHIP (20th), with opponents hitting .257 against them (26th). Key injuries include Nolan Arenado (shoulder) and Brendan Donovan (groin), thinning their lineup.
Key Players:
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C Willson Contreras: Leads with 19 HRs, 73 RBIs, and a .448 slugging percentage. He’s batting .255 with a .340 OBP.
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1B Alec Burleson: Tops the team with a .286 average and .451 slugging, a reliable contact hitter.
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LHP Matthew Liberatore: 6-11, 4.27 ERA, 7.0 K/9. Allowed four runs in 4.1 innings in his last start against Tampa Bay and two runs in three innings against the Reds in June.
Cincinnati Reds (68-66, 36-29 Home)
The Reds are reeling, having just been swept by the Dodgers and losing six of their last seven overall. However, they’re 36-29 at home and have won four of their last five at Great American Ball Park following a loss. Cincinnati ranks 13th in runs scored (597, 4.5 per game), 24th in home runs (130), and 18th in batting average (.246). Their pitching staff boasts a 3.85 ERA (10th) and a 1.24 WHIP (9th), with 8.6 K/9 (12th). Injuries to Tyler Stephenson (thumb) and Graham Ashcraft (forearm) hurt, but Elly De La Cruz remains a dynamic force.
Key Players:
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SS Elly De La Cruz: Leads with 19 HRs, 77 RBIs, and a .270 average. He’s on a two-game hitting streak but batting .227 over his last five.
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CF TJ Friedl: Hitting .266 with 10 HRs and 62 walks, a disciplined leadoff threat.
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RHP Zack Littell: 9-8, 3.62 ERA, 1.14 WHIP. Allowed 3 runs in 3 innings in his last start and has a 13-13-0 ATS record when starting.
Key Matchups
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Liberatore vs. Reds’ Offense:
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Liberatore’s 4.27 ERA and .265 opponent batting average suggest vulnerability, especially at Great American Ball Park, which boosts home runs by 5% (Statcast Park Factor). De La Cruz and Friedl could capitalize on his inconsistency, as he’s allowed 3+ runs in three of his last five starts.
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Littell vs. Cardinals’ Lineup:
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Littell’s 3.62 ERA and 1.14 WHIP give Cincinnati a pitching edge, but his 28 home runs allowed this season are a concern against Contreras and Burleson. The Cardinals’ 7.9 K/game (8th-lowest) means they’ll put balls in play, testing Littell’s ability to limit damage.
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Great American Ball Park Factor:
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The park’s hitter-friendly nature (highest home run Park Factor in MLB) favors overs, with the Cardinals and Reds combining for a 7-2-1 over record in their last five games each. Expect both teams to exploit this, especially with Liberatore’s struggles.
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Betting Analysis
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Moneyline: The Reds’ -134 odds imply a 56.9%-win probability. Cincinnati’s home strength and Littell’s consistency make them the favorite, but the Cardinals’ +114 offers upset potential with Contreras and Burleson’s bats.
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Over/Under (9): The over is 7-2-1 in the teams’ last five games combined, and Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly environment supports high scoring. However, the ‘Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs’ market has hit in four of Cincinnati’s last five games as favorites against NL Central opponents, suggesting a slow start.
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Player Prop: Elly De La Cruz Over 0.5 Hits (-200): De La Cruz’s two-game hitting streak and .270 average, combined with Liberatore’s .265 opponent batting average, make this a strong play.