Tonight, the NBA season continues its tip-off with an Atlantic Division rivalry as the Philadelphia 76ers visit the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. While the Celtics enter as home favorites, the game-time decision of Celtics Guard Jaylen Brown has shifted the calculus of this matchup, creating a value opportunity, as Boston’s two best players would be sidelined for this opening matchup.
Analytical Edge
The headline number everyone sees is last season’s records: Boston’s dominant 61-21 versus Philadelphia’s dismal 24-58. Based on that alone, a -4.5 spread for the Celtics at home seems reasonable. However, Celtics superstar Jayson Tatum is out until February or March 2026, recovering from an achilles injury. The Celtics are built around his scoring and playmaking, and his absence leaves a massive void until he is available later this year. Meanwhile, the 76ers, despite a poor 2024-25 campaign where they allowed 115.8 points per game, still possess the formidable Joel Embiid. Facing a Celtics squad without its primary defender and offensive threat makes the challenge for Philadelphia significantly less daunting.
The Contrarian Risk
Backing the 76ers boils down to two main risk factors. First, the Celtics’ system and home-court advantage at TD Garden could prove resilient. Boston was an excellent 28-13 at home last season, and players like Derrick White could step into larger roles effectively enough to secure a win and cover the spread. Second, Philadelphia has its own injury problems. Paul George is out tonight (day-to-day with a knee injury). With George unable to play, the offensive burden falls almost entirely on Joel Embiid. A focused Celtics defense could exploit this, and the 76ers could struggle for offensive consistency, allowing Boston to pull away even without Jaylen Brown or Tatum.
Market Perception vs. Reality
The market’s perception is anchored to the Celtics being the vastly superior team, justifying their status as a -4.5 point favorite. This perception is built on their 61-win season and the 76ers’ 58-loss season. The reality, however, is that this is not the same Celtics team that dominated last year. The absence of an MVP-caliber player like Tatum is a game-changer that the betting line has underestimated. The current spread suggests Tatum’s impact is only worth a few points when, in reality, it swings the competitive balance dramatically. This discrepancy between the public’s memory of last season and the on-court reality for this specific game is where the value lies. The 76ers are being undervalued because of their past season’s record, while the Celtics are being overvalued despite their critical injuries.