Cincinnati Bengals 2025 Season Preview: Win Total Over/Under Bet

The Cincinnati Bengals head into the 2025 NFL season with high expectations, fueled by a potent offense led by superstar QB Joe Burrow but tempered by defensive concerns and a challenging schedule. With sportsbooks setting their win total at 9.5, bettors face a decision on whether the Bengals can surpass this mark or fall short.

This preview breaks down the key factors influencing Cincinnati’s 2025 season, including their roster, schedule, and historical performance.

Offensive Firepower: A Strength to Lean On

Offensively, the Bengals will remain one of the NFL’s most explosive, centered around quarterback Joe Burrow, who led the league in 2024 with 4,918 passing yards and 43 TDs. His connection with WRs Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, both secured with lucrative contract extensions, forms a dynamic passing attack.

Chase, coming off a receiving triple crown (leading the NFL in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns), is a game-changer, while Higgins provides a reliable second option. New additions like rookie running back Tahj Brooks will complement speedster Chase Brown to bolster the ground game and short-pass options; while rookie guard Dylan Fairchild should plug-in as a starter, to help secure the offensive line.

Cincinnati’s offense ranked fifth in DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) last season, and with injuries mitigated, they’re poised to maintain that elite production. However, the offensive line remains a question mark, and any regression in Burrow’s health or performance could cap their ceiling. The Bengals’ ability to score consistently, averaging 27.8 PPG in losses last season, the highest for any team with at least 5 losses; suggests they can keep games competitive if the defense struggles.

Defensive Struggles: A Cause for Concern

The Bengals’ defense is the primary reason for skepticism about their 2025 prospects. Ranking 27th in DVOA in 2024, Cincinnati’s defense was a liability. Departure of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and the arrival of Al Golden from Notre Dame introduces uncertainty, as Golden inherits a unit with limited depth beyond stars like edge rusher Trey Hendrickson. Hendrickson’s ongoing contract holdout adds further risk—if he’s traded or misses time, the pass rush could falter. However, rookie top-pick Shemar Stewart could show to be a disruptor and shore up the defensive edge and pass rush.

Cincinnati faces a tougher defensive schedule in 2025, moving from the third-easiest set of opposing offenses in 2024 to the 14th-hardest based on 2024 DVOA ratings. Key players like Cam Taylor-Britt (3 INTs in 2024) and Geno Stone (3 INTs) provide some stability in the secondary, but the linebacker corps and defensive line lack the depth to handle a gauntlet of strong offenses, including matchups against playoff teams like the Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Baltimore Ravens.

Schedule Analysis: A Mixed Bag

The Bengals’ 2025 schedule is the 10th-hardest in the NFL, with opponents projected to win a combined 154 games. Nine of their 17 games are against teams that finished above .500 in 2024, including five with 12 or more wins.

However, the early slate offers a chance to build momentum, with winnable games against the Cleveland Browns (Week 1) and Jacksonville Jaguars (Week 2). This favorable start could help Cincinnati avoid the slow September starts that have plagued them under Burrow (100% healthy this offseason but 1-9 in the first two weeks over the past three seasons).

The middle of the schedule is daunting, with four consecutive games against 2024 playoff teams (Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Detroit Lions, and Pittsburgh Steelers). The Bengals also face Baltimore twice, including a primetime Thursday night road game, where they’ve lost narrowly in recent years (two losses by a combined four points in 2024). Cincinnati’s 4-7 record in one-possession games last season highlights back luck or their vulnerability in tight contests, which could be a factor against a tough AFC North.

Historical Context and Betting Trends

Cincinnati finished 9-8 in 2024, missing the playoffs and going under their 10.5-win total for the second straight year. They were 9-4 as favorites but 0-4 as underdogs, showing their reliance on controlling games with their offense. The Bengals’ win total dropped from 10.5 to 9.5 during the offseason, with 72% of early betting money backing the under, reflecting skepticism about their defensive improvements and schedule strength.

Despite this, some analysts see value in the over. The Bengals have a history of competitive seasons, with three straight winning seasons from 2021-2023, and their offense is capable of carrying them to 10+ wins if the defense can be merely average. Betting markets give the over 9.5 wins a 60% implied probability (-150 odds), while the under sits at +125 (44.4% implied probability).

Key Betting Considerations

Case for the Over:

• Elite offense led by Burrow, Chase, and Higgins, with a top five DVOA ranking.

• Favorable early schedule against weaker opponents (Browns, Jaguars).

• Historical resilience, averaging 27.8 points in losses last season.

• Potential for a healthier offensive line and new additions like Brooks elevate the offense further.

Case for the Under:

• Defensive weaknesses, with a 27th-ranked DVOA and minimal offseason upgrades.

• Tougher schedule, including nine games against 2024 winning teams and a brutal mid-season stretch.

• Trey Hendrickson’s contract dispute could disrupt the pass rush.

• Poor record in close games (4-7 in one-possession games) and slow starts.