The Los Angeles Chargers enter the 2025-26 NFL season with a win total set at 9.5, following an 11-6 campaign in 2024 under head coach Jim Harbaugh that secured a playoff berth but ended with a wild-card loss to the Houston Texans.
With Justin Herbert anchoring an elite passing attack and key offseason additions, the Chargers aim to contend for the AFC West title (around +320 odds).
However, defensive departures and a grueling late-season schedule pose challenges. Below, we analyze their offseason moves, schedule, betting odds, and our pick for the Over/Under 9.5 wins.
Betting Odds and Market Insights
At major sportsbooks the Chargers’ baseline win total is 9.5, with Over -120 (54.5% implied probability) and Under +100. The variance reflects concerns about defensive losses and the late-season schedule but confidence in Herbert and Harbaugh.
The Chargers hit the Over in 2024 (11 wins vs. 9 projected) but missed it in three of the prior four seasons. Super Bowl odds range from +2600 (Caesars) to +2800 (DraftKings), with AFC West odds at +320 and playoff odds at -130.
Offseason Moves and Roster Outlook
The Chargers prioritized improving their run game and maintaining defensive depth despite significant losses. Key moves include:
- Offensive Additions: Signed RB Najee Harris (from Pittsburgh) and drafted RB Omarion Hampton (first round) to boost a 2024 rushing attack that ranked 24th in yards per attempt (4.1). Added WR Tre Harris (second round) and WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith (fifth round) to replace retired Mike Williams. Signed TE Tyler Conklin and drafted TE Oronde Gadsden II (fifth round) to complement Will Dissly. Bolstered the offensive line with G Mekhi Becton and C Andre James.
- Defensive Changes: Lost DE Joey Bosa (to Buffalo), DT Poona Ford (to Rams), DT Morgan Fox (to Atlanta), and CB Kristian Fulton (to Kansas City). Signed DL Da’Shawn Hand, DL Naquan Jones, and drafted DL Jamaree Caldwell (third round). Added CBs Donte Jackson and Benjamin St-Juste, and drafted CB Trikweze Bridges (seventh round) to reinforce the secondary.
- Key Retentions: QB Justin Herbert, coming off a 2024 season with 3,860 passing yards and only three interceptions in 17 games, remains the cornerstone. Extended LT Rashawn Slater for line stability.
- Coaching Stability: Harbaugh’s 11-6 debut and historical 11-win average over five NFL seasons instill confidence in his physical, run-heavy system.
The offense, which ranked 8th in pass offense DVOA but 21st in rush offense DVOA in 2024, should improve with Harris and Becton. The defense, previously 9th in DVOA, faces uncertainty after losing Bosa and Fulton but benefits from Harbaugh’s disciplined approach.
2025 Schedule Analysis
The Chargers’ 2025 schedule ranks as the 12th-most difficult based on 2024 opponent win totals (.512), per PFF.
They face nine teams with winning records from last season, including five with 12+ wins, but only six games against 2024 playoff teams. A Week 12 bye provides a late-season reset, but a brutal closing stretch (at Chiefs, vs. Eagles, at Cowboys, vs. Texans, at Broncos) could define their season. Early divisional games (Weeks 1-3) offer a chance to build momentum.
| Week | Date | Opponent | Time (ET) | TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fri, Sep 5 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | 8:00 PM | NBC |
| 2 | Mon, Sep 15 | @ Las Vegas Raiders | 10:00 PM | ESPN/ABC |
| 3 | Sun, Sep 21 | vs Denver Broncos | 4:05 PM | CBS |
| 4 | Sun, Sep 28 | @ New York Giants | 1:00 PM | FOX |
| 5 | Sun, Oct 5 | vs Washington Commanders | 4:25 PM | FOX |
| 6 | Sun, Oct 12 | @ Miami Dolphins | 1:00 PM | CBS |
| 7 | Sun, Oct 19 | vs Indianapolis Colts | 4:05 PM | CBS |
| 8 | Thu, Oct 23 | vs Minnesota Vikings | 8:15 PM | Prime Video |
| 9 | Sun, Nov 2 | @ Tennessee Titans | 1:00 PM | CBS |
| 10 | Sun, Nov 9 | vs Pittsburgh Steelers | 8:20 PM | NBC |
| 11 | Sun, Nov 16 | @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 1:00 PM | CBS |
| 12 | BYE WEEK | – | – | – |
| 13 | Sun, Nov 30 | vs Las Vegas Raiders | 4:25 PM | CBS |
| 14 | Mon, Dec 8 | vs Philadelphia Eagles | 8:15 PM | ESPN/ABC |
| 15 | Sun, Dec 14 | @ Kansas City Chiefs | 4:25 PM | CBS |
| 16 | Sun, Dec 21 | @ Dallas Cowboys | 1:00 PM | FOX |
| 17 | Dec 27-28 | vs Houston Texans | TBD | TBD |
| 18 | Jan 3-4 | @ Denver Broncos | TBD | TBD |
Key matchups include Week 1 at Kansas City (a divisional litmus test), Week 14 vs. Philadelphia (a potential Super Bowl preview), and Week 15 at Kansas City (a critical late-season clash). Winnable early games against the Raiders, Giants, Commanders, Colts, and Titans could propel the Chargers to a 5-3 start.
Pros and Cons for Betting the Over
Pros:
- Harbaugh’s Track Record: Averaged 11 wins in five NFL seasons; led Chargers to 11-6 in 2024, surpassing expectations.
- Herbert’s Elite Play: Threw only three interceptions in 2024 (second-fewest all-time for 500+ attempts), ensuring offensive reliability.
- Improved Run Game: Harris, Hampton, and Becton should elevate the 27th-ranked rushing attack (2024 success rate), balancing the 8th-ranked pass offense.
- Early Schedule: Five winnable games in Weeks 2-7 (Raiders, Giants, Commanders, Colts, Titans; combined 30-55 in 2024) set up a strong start.
Cons:
- Defensive Losses: Losing Bosa, Ford, and Fulton weakens a unit that ranked 9th in DVOA; new additions (Hand, Jones, St-Juste) are unproven.
- Late-Season Gauntlet: Five of the final six games are against 2024 playoff teams (Chiefs twice, Eagles, Texans, Broncos), with three on the road.
- Receiver Uncertainty: Losing Williams and Palmer leaves a thin WR corps; rookies Tre Harris and Lambert-Smith must contribute immediately.
- AFC West Competition: The Chiefs (11.5 wins projected), Broncos (9.5), and an improved Raiders squad make divisional games challenging.