In the unforgiving landscape of the NFL, contrasts don’t get much starker than this. The winless New York Jets, mired in quarterback chaos and desperate for any sign of life, travel to Paycor Stadium to face a Cincinnati Bengals team trying to build on a high-wire victory. The market has installed the Bengals as a 6-point favorite, a number that asks: Are you laying points with a Bengals team regaining its footing, looking to reclaim .500, or catching them with an organization in complete disarray?
Case for the Cincinnati Bengals
The argument for the Bengals begins and ends with the single most glaring mismatch on the field. Star wideout Ja’Marr Chase is coming off a franchise-record 16-reception performance against Pittsburgh and has found an improbable chemistry with veteran quarterback Joe Flacco. Now, he faces a New York Jets secondary that will be without its best player, All-Pro cornerback Sauce Gardner, who is sidelined with a concussion. Per the data, the Jets play man coverage at the seventh-highest rate in the league. Last week, Chase torched a Steelers defense for eight catches and a touchdown when they tried to man him up. Attempting that same strategy without Gardner is a recipe for disaster.
Beyond that specific matchup, the Bengals have a significant stability advantage. While Cincinnati’s 3-4 record is nothing to celebrate, they are coming off an emotional 33-31 win and have a clear offensive identity forming around Flacco and Chase. Conversely, the Jets are a rudderless ship.
Jets Coach Aaron Glenn benched Justin Fields mid-game last week, and the offense sputtered just as badly under Tyrod Taylor, who threw two interceptions. Glenn is now refusing to name a starter, citing ‘competitive advantage,’ but the uncertainty signals deep internal problems. With a league-worst turnover differential of minus-9, this kind of quarterback turmoil on the road against a team that knows how to win is a formula for giving the game away. In a game where the spread is a touchdown, one or two critical mistakes, which the Jets have specialized in, are all it takes for the Bengals to pull away and cover the number.
The Case for the New York Jets
While the Jets’ situation looks bleak, laying nearly a touchdown with this Bengals team is far from a comfortable position. A glance at the season-long stats shows that Cincinnati has just as many weaknesses as its opponent. The Bengals’ offense ranks 31st overall and dead last in rushing. Their defense is even worse, sitting at 31st overall and 31st in scoring. Although the Bengals’ season needs to be looked at in 3 phases thus far: Joe Burrow started the first 2 games, injured in Week 2 (2-0), backup Jake Browning goes 0-3 (which destabilized the team), and post-Joe Flacco trade (1-1), which has returned energy to the Bengals offense with the steady vet at the controls.
Despite their 0-7 record, New York is 3-4 against the spread, indicating they have been more competitive than their winless mark suggests. Their defense, even without Gardner, still ranks a respectable 16th overall. They are not an elite unit, but they have enough talent to potentially frustrate a Bengals offense that has struggled with consistency all year. The Jets’ offense is abysmal, ranking 32nd in passing, but the Bengals’ 30th-ranked pass defense is hardly an immovable object. It won’t be pretty, but the Jets may only need to muster 17-20 points to stay within the 6-point spread against a Cincinnati defense that is prone to giving up points. For the Jets to find a path to a cover, the game will need the makings of a sloppy affair where professional pride and desperation keep the underdog fighting to the final whistle, securing a backdoor cover in a game that stays closer than the public expects.