Chicago’s 5.10 runs per game, fifth in the majors, arrive at Great American Ball Park, where Cincinnati’s 4.59 team ERA ranks 23rd. The Reds counter with a 4.23 scoring average that sits 20th, while the Cubs’ 4.38 ERA places 21st. First pitch is tonight, July 11, at 7:11 p.m. EDT in a series, the Reds lead 1-0 after Friday’s 4-0 shutout behind Hunter Greene.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Away/Home) | 52-42 | 43-50 |
| Runs Per Game | 5.10 (5th) | 4.23 (20th) |
| Runs Allowed | 4.38 (21st) | 4.59 (23rd) |
| ERA | 4.38 (21st) | 4.59 (23rd) |
| WHIP | 1.27 | 1.45 |
| On-Base Percentage | .339 (2nd) | .309 (25th) |
| Slugging Percentage | .413 (8th) | .391 (22nd) |
| Home Runs | 112 (7th) | 106 (11th) |
| Batting Average | .245 (15th) | .228 (29th) |
| K/9 | 7.9 | 8.1 |
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Key Advantage
On-Base Edge: Chicago’s .339 OBP leads the National League and creates constant traffic against a Reds staff that walks 4.5 batters per nine innings. Watch whether the Cubs’ patience forces Lodolo out early and unlocks the middle of Cincinnati’s bullpen.
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Market Analysis
The market prices this as a virtual coin flip with Chicago at -106 and Cincinnati at -114, implying a 50.9% win probability for the Reds despite the Cubs’ 5.10 runs per game ranking fifth in baseball. The -1.5 run line on Chicago at +111 suggests oddsmakers view the offensive gap as nominal once home field and Lodolo’s left-handed profile are factored in. Cincinnati’s 4.59 ERA, the second-worst mark in the National League Central, explains why the 10-run total sits above both teams’ season averages.
Assad’s Command Edge Over Lodolo’s Walk Rate Decides Early Innings
Javier Assad carries a 1.10 WHIP and 2.4 BB/9 into his 19th start, marks that rank among the top 30 starters in the majors for limiting free passes. Nick Lodolo counters with a 1.46 WHIP and 3.7 BB/9, a command profile that has inflated his 4.68 ERA despite a respectable 7.2 K/9. The Cubs’ .339 on-base percentage, second in MLB, is built to exploit exactly this vulnerability; they lead the league in walks drawn and will extend Lodolo’s pitch count early.
Assad’s 6-1 record reflects more than run support; his 3.19 strikeout-to-walk ratio indicates genuine command that plays up in a hitter’s park. Lodolo has allowed 1.2 home runs per nine innings, and Great American Ball Park’s 101 park factor for left-handed power adds risk when his fastball drifts over the plate. The first meeting saw Hunter Greene dominate, but Assad’s ground-ball rate (48.3%) offers a different defensive profile that neutralizes Cincinnati’s pull-heavy lineup.
Great American’s Hitter Tilt Amplifies Chicago’s Lineup Depth
Great American Ball Park’s multi-year 101 batting park factor favors offense, and the Cubs’ .413 slugging percentage (eighth in MLB) is positioned to capitalize. Chicago’s 112 home runs rank seventh, with Pete Crow-Armstrong and Seiya Suzuki combining for 38 long balls against a Reds staff that surrenders 1.3 HR/9. Cincinnati’s .228 batting average, worst in the National League, limits their ability to manufacture runs without the long ball.
The Reds’ bullpen carries a 4.82 ERA over the last 30 days, 27th in baseball, and has been taxed by early starter exits; Lodolo averages just 5.2 innings per start. Chicago’s depth, highlighted by a bench that produces .320 OBP, gains leverage in late innings when Cincinnati turns to middle relief. Friday’s shutout was an outlier driven by Greene’s top velocity; the structural matchup favors sustained Cubs offense across nine innings.