Shōta Imanaga surrendered three home runs and the Cubs stranded seven runners in a 6-5 loss to the Cardinals last night at Busch Stadium. Chicago had won two straight after dropping 10 in a row; St. Louis snapped a four-game skid. The rematch goes tonight, May 30, at 7:16 p.m. EDT with Ben Brown on the mound for the Cubs against Kyle Leahy for the Cardinals.
| Metric | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Away/Home) | 31-27 (14-14) | 30-25 (15-12) |
| Runs Per Game | 4.55 | 4.18 |
| Runs Allowed | 4.26 | 4.33 |
| Team AVG | .238 | .238 |
| Team OBP | .336 | .318 |
| Team SLG | .387 | .383 |
| Team ERA | 4.19 | 4.22 |
| Team WHIP | 1.24 | 1.37 |
| Home Runs | 64 | 60 |
| Walks | 175 | 198 |
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Key Advantage
Starting Pitching: Cubs right-hander Ben Brown owns a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP through 44.2 innings, against Cardinals right-hander Kyle Leahy’s 4.44 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. If Brown’s swing-and-miss stuff (47 strikeouts, 14 walks) transfers through the order, Chicago controls the run-prevention edge from the first pitch.
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Market Analysis
The Cubs carry a -136 moneyline into Busch Stadium, implying roughly 55% win probability against the Cardinals’ +112. The run line sits at Cubs -1.5 (+126) and Cardinals +1.5 (-153), with the total at 8 runs. The narrow moneyline gap reflects Chicago’s starter advantage more than any meaningful team-level separation: the Cubs’ 4.55 runs scored per game and 4.26 runs allowed barely clear St. Louis’s 4.18 and 4.33. The 8-run total sits below both teams’ combined run averages, pricing in Brown’s contact suppression and the Cardinals’ recent offensive quietude. The market is treating this as a pitcher’s duel with slight Chicago lean rather than a mismatch.
Brown’s top Run Prevention vs. Leahy’s Contact Vulnerability
Ben Brown has been one of the more effective starters in the National League by the core indicators. His 2.01 ERA is supported by a 0.99 WHIP and a strikeout-to-walk ratio near 3.4:1. He has allowed one home run in 44.2 innings. The Cubs’ 1.24 team WHIP leads this matchup, and Brown’s individual mark is even sharper. Against a Cardinals lineup that has scored four or fewer runs in six of its last eight games, his profile fits.
Kyle Leahy has walked 22 batters in 50.2 innings and surrendered eight home runs. His 1.58 WHIP indicates traffic on the bases, and the Cubs’ .336 team OBP suggests they have the plate discipline to exploit it. Chicago’s 64 home runs rank fourth in the National League; Leahy’s fly-ball vulnerability is the exact profile those bats target. The deciding factor is the Cubs can convert base-runners after leaving seven stranded last night.
Bullpen Fatigue and Late-Inning Variance
St. Louis used six relievers to secure last night’s 6-5 win, with Riley O’Brien recording his 14th save after allowing a run. Gordon Graceffo picked up the win with one clean inning. The heavy usage means middle-inning depth is a concern if Leahy exits early. The Cardinals’ 4.22 team ERA and 1.37 WHIP are already weaker than Chicago’s marks, and taxed relief arms compress that gap further.
The Cubs have their own bullpen questions after Phil Maton allowed a run in two-thirds of an inning and the staff covered 2.2 innings behind Imanaga. Chicago’s relief corps has been more reliable on the season, but both teams enter with some arm fatigue. The eighth and ninth innings could swing on which manager has fresher options, not just which starter hands off a lead.