The Cincinnati Reds and Philadelphia Phillies are deadlocked at 25-24, separated by one game in a three-game set that concludes this afternoon, May 20, at 1:06 p.m. EDT at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies took Game 1 5-4 before the Reds answered 4-1 on Monday behind a strong start from Chase Burns. Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott returns to the mound for the rubber match against a Philadelphia club that has won eight of its last 10 but remains without designated hitter Kyle Schwarber due to illness.
| Metric | Cincinnati Reds | Philadelphia Phillies |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Away/Home) | 25-24 (12-13) | 25-24 (13-13) |
| Runs Per Game | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Runs Allowed | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Team Batting Average | .226 | .235 |
| Team ERA | 4.81 | 4.22 |
| Team WHIP | 1.49 | 1.36 |
| Home Runs | 62 | 57 |
| Stolen Bases | 42 | 34 |
| Walks | 221 | 134 |
| Strikeouts (Pitching) | 365 | 452 |
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Key Advantage
Starter Control: Abbott’s 4.21 ERA and 1.50 WHIP give Cincinnati a cleaner run-prevention profile than Nola’s 5.91 ERA and 9 home runs allowed in 45.2 innings. The Reds’ path to victory depends on Abbott limiting damage through six frames against a Schwarber-less lineup.
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Market Analysis
The market prices Philadelphia at roughly 58% implied win probability reflect a -157 moneyline and a 9.5-run total that together signal moderate confidence in the home side despite Monday’s loss. The -157 sits heavier than raw run differentials suggest, telling you the books are pricing in Philadelphia’s 8-2 surge, Citizens Bank Park’s hitter-friendly environment, and Cincinnati’s 4.81 team ERA as compounding factors. The 9.5 total aligns with both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities: the Reds allow 4.8 runs per game and the Phillies 4.5, with neither bullpen ranking among the league’s reliable units. Cincinnati’s +1.5 (-156) run line offers a compressed alternative for a club that has played tight games on the road.
Abbott’s Command Against Nola’s Home Run Vulnerability
Cincinnati’s Andrew Abbott has walked 23 batters in 51.1 innings, a control issue that has inflated his WHIP to 1.50 despite a serviceable 4.21 ERA. The left-hander has limited home runs to six, keeping his damage contained when he avoids traffic. Against a Philadelphia lineup missing Kyle Schwarber and his 20 home runs, Abbott faces a diminished power threat that reduces his walk penalty.
Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola has surrendered nine home runs in just 45.2 innings, pairing his 5.91 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP that ranks among the worst marks for qualified starters in the majors. The right-hander’s 46 strikeouts in 45.2 innings show swing-and-miss ability, but his hard-contact profile has proven vulnerable at Citizens Bank Park. Nola allowed four runs to these same Reds on Monday, a short-rest turn that raises workload questions for the rematch.
Schwarber Absence and Philadelphia’s Lineup Adjustment
The Phillies enter without Kyle Schwarber for a third straight game, removing a bat that had produced extra-base hits in nine of his last 11 appearances. Manager Don Mattingly has shifted Bryce Harper to designated hitter and inserted Adolis Garcia into the two-hole, a configuration that lacks Schwarber’s proven power but adds defensive flexibility. Alec Bohm carries a 10-game hitting streak into the contest, providing a counterweight at cleanup.
Cincinnati’s offense runs through shortstop Elly De La Cruz and his .297 average, with Spencer Steer supplying seven home runs and 18 RBI as a middle-order threat. The Reds have scored 4.3 runs per game despite a .226 team average, relying on walks and aggression: their 221 free passes lead the National League and their 42 stolen bases rank among the league’s most active running games. Against Nola’s control issues, that patience could extend at-bats and elevate his pitch count early.