The first meeting lit the fuse. Ole Miss trailed by 1 against Auburn at halftime, 28-29 in Oxford five weeks ago, before the Tigers detonated for 50 second-half points in a 78-66 win that launched the Rebels into a 10-game losing skid.
Auburn coach Steven Pearl replayed that tape this week, emphasizing the connectivity and desperation that contained Ole Miss, then. The Rebels arrive at Neville Arena tonight, Feb. 28, at 8:30 p.m. EST on a different trajectory, having scored 90-plus in three of their last four. Auburn is one of 42 teams competing for 37 at-large NCAA Tournament bids. The Tigers need this one.
| Metric | Ole Miss Rebels | Auburn Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Conf) | 11-17 (3-12) | 15-13 (6-9) |
| Points Per Game | 75.1 (204th) | 83.5 (35th) |
| Points Allowed | 75.8 (236th) | 79.7 (326th) |
| Offensive Rating | 109.1 (198th) | 119.2 (31st) |
| Defensive Rating | 110.1 (272nd) | 113.8 (330th) |
| 3-Point % | 33.0% (251st) | 33.6% (211th) |
| Offensive Rebounds/G | 10.4 (234th) | 13.8 (12th) |
| Steals/G | 6.9 (159th) | 7.5 (110th) |
| Blocks/G | 4.3 (58th) | 4.3 (57th) |
| Assists/G | 13.8 (192nd) | 12.9 (259th) |
|
Key Advantage
Auburn’s 119.2 offensive rating drives against Ole Miss’s 110.1 defensive rating, a production mismatch that should fuel scoring. The total is thin given both teams’ recent pace and Auburn’s defensive liability.
|
||
Market Analysis
The board reads Auburn -10.5 with a total of 152.5. The moneyline implies roughly 81% win probability for the Tigers against Ole Miss’s approximately 19%. That spread prices in Auburn’s series dominance, 10 straight wins over the Rebels, and the home-court edge at Neville Arena, where Auburn is 57-17 all-time against Ole Miss.
The total is where the price disconnects from performance. Auburn allows 79.7 points per game, 326th nationally, and has surrendered 80-plus in four of its last six. Ole Miss has cracked 93 points in three of its last four contests. The 152.5 assumes defensive resistance neither team has shown recently. More possessions, more points.
Auburn’s Offensive Rebounding vs. Ole Miss’s Defensive Vulnerability
Auburn forward KeShawn Murphy grabbed 14 rebounds in the January meeting, a career-high that keyed the Tigers’ second-half separation. Pearl’s team lives on the glass: 13.8 offensive rebounds per game create second-chance opportunities that mask turnover issues. Auburn turns it over on only 10.1 possessions per game, good control that keeps those extra tries alive.
The Rebels bleed defensive rebounds, allowing 36.9 per game to opponents. When Auburn misses, it often doesn’t miss twice. The Tigers also draw fouls at the second-highest rate nationally, 27.7 free-throw attempts per game. Ole Miss commits 19.4 fouls per game, 329th nationally. That combination of offensive rebounding and free-throw volume sustains scoring even when jump shots fail.
Ole Miss guard AJ Storr managed 18 points in the first meeting, but the Rebels lacked secondary creation. The first-half lead evaporated because Auburn owned the glass and the whistle. The same structural issues persist.
Ole Miss’s Late-Season Scoring Surge
The Rebels’ 10-game losing streak obscures a scoring uptick. Ole Miss hung 94 on Florida, 90 on Mississippi State, and 106 on LSU in its last four games, all losses. The offense hums at 75.1 points per game on the season, but has operated well above that clip recently. Auburn’s defense, 330th nationally in points allowed per 100 possessions, offers no resistance.
Auburn allows opponents to shoot 37.0% from three, second-worst nationally. Ole Miss shoots 33.0% from deep, poor but not hopeless, and has shown variance in recent weeks. The Rebels also protect the ball: 9.5 turnovers per game, 23rd nationally, keeping possessions productive. In a game featuring two defenses that cannot stop anyone, the over 152.5 captures the reality better than the spread captures the margin.