Victor Wembanyama’s 33-point eruption in Game 4 pulled San Antonio even in this Western Conference Finals series, but the Spurs now travel to Oklahoma City tonight, May 26, at 8:40 p.m. EDT with a depleted Thunder roster still favored by the market. Oklahoma City guard Jalen Williams is doubtful with a hamstring injury and guard Ajay Mitchell is out with a calf issue, stripping the Thunder of secondary creation and forcing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander into solo ball-handling duty. San Antonio’s Stephon Castle has averaged 7.4 assists in the playoffs, and the Spurs’ starting five has outscored Thunder starters by 31.7 points per game across four games.
| Metric | San Antonio Spurs | Oklahoma City Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Away/Home) | 62-20 (30-11) | 64-18 (33-8) |
| Points Per Game | 115.5 | 119.0 |
| Points Allowed | 104.6 | 106.9 |
| Offensive Rating | 120.5 (4th) | 119.4 (8th) |
| Defensive Rating | 112.1 (3rd) | 108.2 (1st) |
| Three-Point % | 35.9 (T14th) | 36.5 (9th) |
| Effective Field Goal % | 55.9 (T6th) | 56.1 (T4th) |
| Offensive Rebounds | 11.4 (T14th) | 9.6 (T27th) |
| Turnovers | 12.7 (4th) | 12.5 (3rd) |
| Assists | 28.1 (9th) | 25.8 (T18th) |
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Key Advantage
Interior Volume: San Antonio’s 11.4 offensive rebounds per game against Oklahoma City’s 9.6 creates second-chance opportunities that compound the Thunder’s already thin rotation. Watch whether Wembanyama’s rim presence forces Oklahoma City into contested jumpers early, eroding the home team’s offensive rhythm before the fourth quarter.
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Market Analysis
Oklahoma City carries a -5.5 (-105) line with a 216.5 total, implying roughly 63% win probability for the Thunder against San Antonio’s 37% at +5.5 (-115). The spread sits wider than the raw efficiency gap between these rosters, which signals the market is pricing home-court advantage and Oklahoma City’s Game 4 collapse as a variance event rather than structural decline. The Thunder’s 108.2 defensive rating remains the best in the NBA, and the books appear to trust that top unit to rebound from an uncharacteristic 103-point allowance despite the backcourt injuries.
Gilgeous-Alexander’s Solo Act and the Creation Crisis
Without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has absorbed every ball-handling possession over the past two games and shot 12-for-32 (37.5%), well below his 55.3% season mark. The Thunder’s assist percentage has cratered without secondary creators to initiate offense, and San Antonio’s 7.5 steals per game suddenly becomes more threatening against a one-man attack. Oklahoma City coach Mark Daigneault has emphasized resetting game-to-game, but roster gaps do not reset.
San Antonio’s De’Aaron Fox scored 12 points with 5 assists and 10 rebounds in Sunday’s Game 4; and the Spurs’ 28.1 assists per game (9th in the NBA) reflect a balanced attack that Oklahoma City’s depleted backcourt cannot mirror. The Thunder’s 9.6 offensive rebounds per game (T27th) is a weak mark against San Antonio’s board-crashing starting five, which has dominated interior possession across this series.
Paycom Center Pressure and the Home-Floor Rebound
Oklahoma City’s 33-8 home record this season built the foundation for this -5.5 pricing, yet that record was compiled with a full roster. The Thunder’s 81.7% free-throw shooting (3rd in the NBA) and 56.1% eFG% (T4th) are top marks that travel, but the creation burden now falls entirely on Gilgeous-Alexander against a San Antonio defense that holds opponents to 48.3% from the field (6th in the NBA).
Victor Wembanyama’s 31.6% usage rate and 62.6% true shooting rate give San Antonio a geometric advantage that does not fluctuate with venue. The Spurs’ 120.5 offensive rating (4th in the NBA) has produced efficient half-court sets throughout this series, and Oklahoma City’s 119.4 mark (8th) has compressed without Williams and Mitchell to diversify the attack. The market’s home-court premium assumes Oklahoma City recovers its offensive structure; the personnel suggests otherwise.