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South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Texas Longhorns – Odds, Preview, Picks

Texas's 85.5 PPG attack meets South Carolina's three-game defensive slide in SEC matchup

Baseline Odds
Spread Moneyline
South Carolina Gamecocks Logo
South Carolina Gamecocks
+12.5 (-112) +607
Texas Longhorns Logo
Texas Longhorns
-12.5 (-109) -985

The South Carolina Gamecocks face off against the Texas Longhorns tonight at the Moody Center in an SEC showdown, with tipoff scheduled for 7:00 PM EST. Texas enters at 13-9 and 4-5 in conference play, while South Carolina sits at 11-11 and 2-7 in the SEC. The Longhorns rank 28th nationally in scoring at 85.5 points per game, creating a significant gap against a Gamecocks defense that has surrendered 92 or more points in three consecutive contests. This marks just the fourth all-time meeting between the programs and South Carolina’s first trip to Austin since January 1982.

Metric South Carolina Gamecocks Texas Longhorns
Record (Conf) 11-11 (2-7) 13-9 (4-5)
Points Per Game 77.4 (164th) 85.5 (28th)
Field Goal % 44.6% (232nd) 49.5% (24th)
Points Allowed 74.9 (215th) 74.9 (216th)
Offensive Rating 111.7 (140th) 121.8 (17th)
Free Throw % 78.5% (11th) 73.8% (118th)

Market Analysis

The consensus spread sits at Texas -12.5, with the total set at 150.5 points. The market reflects an 86.52% win probability for the Longhorns against just 13.48% for the Gamecocks. Texas comes off a 79-69 road victory at Oklahoma, where they erased a 14-point first-half deficit, while South Carolina dropped an overtime heartbreaker to LSU at home, 92-87. The Gamecocks have lost three straight in conference and sit at just 1-6 over their last seven games. First-year Texas coach Sean Miller recently notched his 500th career victory, and his squad has found rhythm with balanced scoring and elite shooting percentages. The Longhorns rank second in the SEC and 24th nationally in field goal percentage at 49.5%, while also placing inside the top 15 nationally in both free throws made and attempted per game.

Swain’s surge powers Longhorns’ offensive attack

Junior forward Dailyn Swain has elevated his game to another level over the past four contests, averaging 25.8 points, 7.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.5 steals while converting 64.9% from the floor and 44.4% from three-point range. His scoring average has jumped to 21.2 points per game in SEC action, including a 30-point explosion at Auburn on January 28. The Xavier transfer leads Texas in every major statistical category and provides the Longhorns with a versatile weapon who can score from all three levels. Camden Heide has complemented Swain’s production with scorching shooting over the last two games, hitting 84.6% from the field and 80% from beyond the arc while averaging 15.0 points. The Longhorns also feature three additional double-figure scorers in 7-footer Matas Vokietaitis (14.9 PPG), Tramon Mark (12.9 PPG) and Jordan Pope (12.9 PPG). Texas shot 60% from the field in Saturday’s win at Oklahoma, including 72% in the second half, demonstrating the type of offensive firepower that ranks them 28th nationally in scoring.

Gamecocks’ defensive collapse continues

South Carolina’s defense has unraveled during their current three-game losing streak, surrendering 92 or more points in each contest, including a 95-48 blowout loss to Florida and the 92-87 overtime defeat to LSU. The Gamecocks allowed LSU to shoot 51.7% from the field and lost the rebounding battle 34-27 in their most recent outing. While South Carolina ranks 11th nationally in free-throw percentage at 78.5%, they converted just 71% (22-of-31) against the Tigers after entering that game as the SEC’s top free-throw shooting team. Meechie Johnson continues to produce at a high level with 18.0 points and 5.1 assists per game in conference play, and the Gamecocks feature five players averaging double figures. The issue lies on the defensive end, where South Carolina ranks 215th nationally in points allowed and 236th in defensive rating. Texas’s elite shooting percentage and balanced attack present a difficult matchup for a Gamecocks defense that has struggled to contain opponents during this recent slide. South Carolina also faces the challenge of playing in a hostile road environment for just the second time ever in Austin.

ANALYSIS & EDGE
7.2/10
TARGET: Texas Longhorns -12.5

The statistical gap between Texas’s offensive production and South Carolina’s recent defensive struggles creates a favorable situation for the Longhorns to cover the 12.5-point spread. Texas ranks 28th nationally in scoring at 85.5 points per game and shoots 49.5% from the field, while South Carolina has allowed 92 or more points in three consecutive games and ranks 236th in defensive rating. Dailyn Swain’s hot streak, averaging 25.8 points over his last four games while shooting nearly 65% from the floor, gives Texas a dynamic scorer who can exploit the Gamecocks’ defensive vulnerabilities. South Carolina’s 1-6 record over their last seven games and three-game conference losing streak indicate a team struggling to find answers on the defensive end. The Longhorns’ balanced attack featuring five double-figure scorers and their elite field goal percentage create multiple problems for a South Carolina defense that has collapsed during this recent stretch. Texas -12.5 aligns with the 136-spot national ranking gap in scoring and the Longhorns’ ability to execute at home against a Gamecocks squad making a rare trip to Austin.

What do our ratings mean?

Our Scoring System (1-10):

  • 8.5 - 10 (Elite): Highest confidence. Reserved for rare, significant market edges.
  • 6.5 - 8.4 (Conviction): Strong indicator. Backed by solid evidence and multiple factors.
  • 1.0 - 6.4 (Lean): Actionable lean. Detects inefficiency but with lower conviction.
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