Amaël L’Etang’s putback with 0.6 seconds left sent Dayton past Saint Louis 70-69 on Saturday afternoon at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, setting up an Atlantic 10 Championship rematch with VCU this afternoon, March 15, at 1 p.m. EDT on CBS. The Rams, who handled Saint Joseph’s 77-64 in the semifinals, have beaten the Flyers twice this season, most recently 68-62 on March 7 when Lazar Djokovic led VCU with 16 points. VCU enters seeking back-to-back conference titles for the first time since joining the A-10 in 2012-13, while Dayton rides the emotional high of Jordan Derkack’s 28-point eruption and a dramatic comeback from 11 points down.
| Metric | Dayton Flyers | VCU Rams |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Conf) | 23-10 (12-6) | 26-7 (15-3) |
| Points Per Game | 74.7 (210th) | 81.9 (53rd) |
| Points Allowed | 69.9 (70th) | 71.8 (119th) |
| Offensive Rating | 108.3 (210th) | 117.9 (45th) |
| Defensive Rating | 101.3 (54th) | 103.3 (92nd) |
| Three-Point % | 34.1% (176th) | 36.4% (42nd) |
| Field Goal % | 44.7% (211th) | 46.2% (115th) |
| Total Rebounds/G | 32.7 (305th) | 36.8 (103rd) |
| Turnovers/G | 12.0 (234th) | 10.7 (105th) |
| Steals/G | 8.5 (30th) | 7.3 (117th) |
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Key Advantage
Efficiency Mismatch: VCU’s 117.9 offensive rating against Dayton’s 101.3 defensive rating creates a 16.6-point gap that the Flyers’ 108.3 offensive output cannot match straight up. Dayton’s path to covering requires their 8.5 steals per game to disrupt VCU’s ball movement and compress possessions.
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Market Analysis
VCU opens as a -3.5 (-110) favorite with a 138.5 total; the moneyline implies roughly 60% win probability for the Rams against Dayton’s 40%. The spread reflects VCU’s superior offensive efficiency and its 2-0 head-to-head record this season, while pricing Dayton’s defensive credentials as insufficient to close the gap. The 138.5 total sits below VCU’s 81.9 points per game and above Dayton’s 69.9 points allowed, positioning the number between both teams’ preferred tempos.
VCU’s Perimeter Edge and Dayton’s Interior Response
The Rams generate 9.3 three-pointers per game at 36.4% accuracy, a volume and efficiency combination that stresses Dayton’s perimeter defense, which allows opponents to shoot 35.3% from deep. Jadrian Tracey’s 2.1 made threes per game over VCU’s last 10 contests, and Terrence Hill Jr.’s 46.3% shooting enables multiple release valves when Dayton’s 8.5 steals per game, second among Division I teams, gamble for disruption.
Dayton’s response runs through the interior, where Amaël L’Etang’s 6.9 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game over the last 10 contests provide rim protection that VCU’s 53.9% two-point shooting has not consistently encountered. The Flyers’ 24.0 free-throw makes per game indicate a deliberate offensive approach designed to neutralize VCU’s transition opportunities and force a half-court contest. Whether Dayton can maintain this discipline after an emotionally draining semifinal, just 24 hours prior, is the question this championship answers.
Third Meeting: Dynamics and Rotational Depth
VCU’s 31-10 bench scoring advantage against Saint Joseph’s reveals rotational depth that Dayton, which relies heavily on Derkack’s 28 points and Bennett’s tournament scoring surge, cannot replicate. The Rams’ 78.6% free-throw shooting in their semifinal and 45.3% field goal accuracy suggest their efficiency has not plateaued despite the tournament grind. Dayton’s 34.5% shooting against Saint Louis, while sufficient for victory, required 24 free-throw attempts to compensate for cold perimeter work; a reliance on whistles that may not travel against VCU’s more disciplined defense.
The Flyers’ victory formula from Saturday: an 8:33 scoring drought by Saint Louis during Dayton’s 17-2 run; exploits opponent error rather than creating sustainable offense. VCU committed just 7 turnovers against Saint Joseph’s and averages only 10.7 turnovers per game, limiting the chaos that Dayton’s defense requires to generate easy transition points. The neutral Pittsburgh venue strips Dayton of the UD Arena advantage that produced their 14-2 home record, leaving a pure basketball matchup where VCU’s statistical superiority in nearly every offensive category provides multiple paths to covering the championship spread.