Washington’s Hannes Steinbach has posted 18 double-doubles this season, the most by a Big Ten freshman since 1997, and the Huskies ride that interior production back into the Alaska Airlines Arena for a Senior Night rematch with USC. The Trojans have lost five straight games and enter without leading scorer Chad Baker-Mazara, who is no longer with the program. Washington won the first meeting 84-76 at Galen Center on Dec. 6, erasing an 18-point halftime deficit behind Steinbach’s 24 points and 16 rebounds. The Huskies tip off Wednesday, March 4, at 10:30 p.m. EST, seeking to sweep the season series in front of their home crowd for the final time this regular season.
| Metric | USC Trojans | Washington Huskies |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Conf) | 18-11 (7-11) | 14-15 (6-12) |
| Points Per Game | 79.2 (101st) | 76.2 (168th) |
| Points Allowed | 76.9 (261st) | 72.7 (148th) |
| Offensive Rating | 109.4 (190th) | 111.6 (133rd) |
| Defensive Rating | 106.3 (174th) | 106.5 (180th) |
| 3-Point % | 31.8% (304th) | 31.6% (309th) |
| Turnovers/G | 12.7 (291st) | 10.6 (94th) |
| Blocks/G | 5.6 (10th) | 4.2 (67th) |
| Assists/G | 15.1 (105th) | 13.5 (214th) |
| Field Goal % | 45.8% (151st) | 45.9% (143rd) |
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Key Advantage
Rim Protection: USC’s 5.6 blocks per game rank 10th nationally, with Jacob Cofie averaging 1.69 per game in the Big Ten. Washington’s 21.3 two-point field goals per game lead directly into that shot-blocking front line, creating a collision between interior volume and top rim deterrence.
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Market Analysis
The spread sits at Washington -6.5 (-105) with a total of 150.5, and the moneyline implies roughly 70% win probability for the Huskies against USC’s 30%. Washington’s ball security edge – 10.6 turnovers per game against USC’s turnover-prone 12.7; supports the favorite pricing with possession control in a compressed-pace environment. The 150.5 total reflects USC’s defensive vulnerability; the Trojans allow 76.9 points per game, against a Washington defense that holds opponents to 72.7.
Steinbach’s Interior Dominance vs. Cofie’s Shot Blocking
Hannes Steinbach anchors Washington’s offense at 18.2 points and 11.1 rebounds per game, shooting 57% from the field. The freshman leads the Big Ten in both offensive and defensive rebounding, generating second-chance opportunities that compensate for Washington’s perimeter deficiencies; the Huskies shoot 31.6% from three, last in the conference. USC counters with Jacob Cofie, a Seattle native who ranks fifth in the Big Ten with 1.69 blocks per game and has recorded at least one block in all but three games this season. The Trojans’ 5.6 blocks per game rank 10th nationally, creating direct resistance to Steinbach’s interior volume.
The first meeting revealed this tension: Steinbach scored 24 and grabbed 16 rebounds, but USC’s Cofie and frontcourt contested enough to keep the Trojans ahead for 30 minutes. Washington’s second-half surge, a 54-28 scoring advantage, came when perimeter shots fell, and USC’s offense stalled. The Trojans have lost five straight entering tonight’s matchup, and now, without Baker-Mazara’s 18.5 points per game, Alijah Arenas has emerged as the primary creator, averaging 14.5 points over the last 10 games. Arenas scored all 14 of his points in the second half against Nebraska on Saturday, too late to reverse a 20-point deficit.
Senior Night and Turnover Control
Washington honors three seniors, Franck Kepnang, Jacob Ognacevic, and Quimari Peterson, in their final home appearance of the regular season. The ceremony adds situational weight to a Huskies team that has performed better at Alaska Airlines Arena, where they are 9-6 this season. The venue has produced shooting surges: Washington has shot over 60% in the second half of three of its last seven games and over 55% in five of those seven.
The turnover battle shapes the game’s margin. Washington is 7-4 when committing fewer turnovers than opponents; USC is 8-3 in the same scenario. The Trojans cough up 12.7 turnovers per game, while Washington’s 10.6 ranks 94th. USC generates steals at a higher rate – 6.4 per game against Washington’s 5.7; but the Trojans’ sloppiness with the ball undermines that defensive playmaking. In the first meeting, Washington’s 13-0 run in the final seven minutes coincided with USC turnovers that stalled their offense and fed transition opportunities Washington converted.