Purdue seeks its 400th Big Ten win at Mackey Arena this afternoon, March 7, at 4 p.m. EST, with NCAA Tournament seeding and a potential four-seed in Chicago on the line. Wisconsin arrives on a five-wins-in-seven-games surge, having just dismantled Maryland 78-45 on Senior Night behind Braeden Carrington’s 18 points and zero first-half turnovers. The Badgers can vault Purdue in the standings and secure a top-four tournament bye with a victory, though they have lost eight straight in West Lafayette. Purdue won the first meeting 89-73 in Madison on Jan. 4, with Fletcher Loyer scoring 20 points and Braden Smith adding 14 assists.
| Metric | Wisconsin Badgers | Purdue Boilermakers |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Conf) | 21-9 (13-6) | 23-7 (13-6) |
| Points Per Game | 82.8 (44th) | 81.9 (54th) |
| Points Allowed | 75.0 (220th) | 69.8 (68th) |
| Offensive Rating | 118.2 (44th) | 123.8 (6th) |
| Defensive Rating | 107.1 (200th) | 105.5 (150th) |
| 3-Point % | 35.7% (85th) | 38.3% (14th) |
| Assists/G | 15.8 (74th) | 19.7 (3rd) |
| Defensive Rebounds/G | 25.8 (79th) | 24.6 (171st) |
| Field Goal % | 45.0% (198th) | 50.0% (15th) |
| Free Throw % | 77.9% (17th) | 74.2% (116th) |
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Key Advantage
Perimeter Firepower: Wisconsin averages 11.4 three-pointers per game, sixth nationally, against a Purdue defense that allows opponents to shoot 33.4% from deep. If the Badgers’ volume shooting travels to Mackey Arena, the -9.5 spread compresses.
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Market Analysis
Purdue opens as a -9.5 (-110) home favorite with a 155.5 total; the moneyline implies roughly 78% win probability for the Boilermakers against Wisconsin’s 22%. The spread reflects Purdue’s 50.0% field goal shooting and top ball movement, 19.7 assists per game, against a Wisconsin defense allowing 75.0 points per game. The 155.5 total prices both offenses pushing pace, with Wisconsin’s 82.8 points per game supporting the over despite Purdue’s defensive restraint.
Blackwell and Boyd Target Purdue’s Defensive Glass
John Blackwell has scored in double figures 68 times in his career and enters averaging 18.1 points over the last 10 games. The Wisconsin junior needs 19 points to join a top group of Big Ten players since 2000 with 19 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1 steal per game. Blackwell’s perimeter gravity opens driving lanes for Nick Boyd, who is averaging 20.0 points with 3.7 rebounds and 3.9 assists.
Purdue’s defensive rebounding is the exploitable gap. The Boilermakers rank 171st in defensive rebounds per game at 24.6, and Wisconsin’s 25.8 per game creates extra possessions. Trey Kaufman-Renn leads Purdue with 8.9 boards, but the team surrenders 28.7 rebounds per game to opponents, third nationally in that category. Wisconsin’s offensive rebounding pressure extends scoring opportunities even when Blackwell’s perimeter shooting draws doubles.
The Badgers’ tempo is the accelerant. Wisconsin ranks third in the Big Ten at 68.9 possessions per 40 minutes and just outscored Maryland 25-0 on fast break points. Purdue’s preferred pace factor of 0.94 suggests a methodical half-court game. If Wisconsin forces transition opportunities, the Boilermakers’ defensive efficiency suffers: opponents shoot 51.7% from the field and 43.3% from three in Purdue’s seven losses.
Loyer’s History and Purdue’s Senior Day Momentum
Fletcher Loyer is shooting 50.0% from the field, 47.6% from three, and 88.9% from the free-throw line for his career against Wisconsin. The sophomore has found his rhythm at the right time, averaging 3.3 made three-pointers over the last 10 games. Loyer’s off-ball movement and catch-and-shoot gravity force defensive rotations that open interior lanes for Kaufman-Renn and C.J. Cox, who scored 27 points against Northwestern.
Braden Smith has recorded double-digit assists in each of his last four games against Wisconsin, including 14 in the January meeting. The Purdue point guard’s pick-and-roll mastery creates the 19.7 assists per game that fuel the Boilermakers’ 50.0% field goal shooting. Wisconsin’s 9.1 turnovers per game, ninth nationally, is the discipline required to limit Smith’s transition opportunities.
Wisconsin is 2-1 in its last three trips to Mackey Arena, with wins in January 2022 and February 2025. Purdue honors its seniors in pregame ceremonies; the Boilermakers are 12-4 at home this season; its 399-114 Big Ten record at Mackey Arena showcases a real home court advantage environment, which will be tested again today.