The Washington Nationals and Cincinnati Reds meet this afternoon, May 14, at 12:41 p.m. EDT at Great American Ball Park in a matchup defined by two starters with nearly identical surface stats and divergent underlying profiles. Nationals left-hander Foster Griffin carries a 4-1 record with a 2.12 ERA, while Reds right-hander Chase Burns matches him at 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA. Washington took the first two games of this series, including Wednesday’s 8-7 extra-inning rally from a 5-0 deficit, and seeks a sweep against a Cincinnati club that has lost 10 of 12.
| Metric | Washington Nationals | Cincinnati Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Record (Away/Home) | 21-22 (15-9) | 22-21 (12-11) |
| Runs Per Game | 5.3 | 4.0 |
| Runs Allowed | 4.82 ERA | 4.52 ERA |
| Batting Average | .242 | .219 |
| Home Runs | 44 | 53 |
| Stolen Bases | 41 | 34 |
| Opponent Average | .255 | .251 |
| WHIP (Starters) | 1.03 | 1.04 |
| Strikeouts (Starters) | 42 K in 46.2 IP | 48 K in 47.0 IP |
| Walks (Starters) | 15 BB | 16 BB |
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Key Advantage
Pitching Peripherals: Griffin’s 2.12 ERA and 1.03 WHIP across 46.2 innings suggest sustainable command, while Burns’s nearly identical surface stats come with a slightly higher walk rate and less MLB track record. Watch whether Griffin’s experience in tight spots limits damage when Cincinnati’s power hitters, who have 53 home runs, connect.
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Market Analysis
The market prices Cincinnati as a -1.5 run line favorite at plus money (+136), implying roughly 59% win probability, with Washington at +1.5 (-165) carrying a 41% implied chance; the 7.5 total sits below typical Great American Ball Park outputs. The -1.5 spread on the home side reflects Cincinnati’s starter ERA edge and the park’s hitter-friendly dimensions, though the narrow moneyline gap signals books see this as a coin-flip pitching duel rather than a structural mismatch. Washington’s 5.3 runs per game and .242 average both exceed Cincinnati’s 4.0 and .219, creating tension with the favorite pricing. The 7.5 total prices that both rotations are capable of suppressing the explosive environment that produced 15 runs on Wednesday.
Griffin’s Command vs. Burns’s Power Arm in a High-Leverage Spot
Foster Griffin’s 15 walks against 42 strikeouts in 46.2 innings generate a 2.80 K/BB ratio that limits base traffic and reduces variance in a park where the ball carries. His 6 home runs allowed in 8 starts is a manageable rate for a lefty working in a bandbox, and the Nationals’ 15-9 road record suggests their rotation travels without dramatic performance degradation. Cincinnati’s .219 team average and 4.0 runs per game are weak marks that Griffin’s control-oriented approach can exploit, particularly if he avoids the walks that have plagued Reds starters.
Chase Burns counters with 48 strikeouts in 47 innings and a fastball-heavy profile that can dominate when located, but his 16 walks and 6 home runs allowed create volatility windows. Burns’ lack of MLB innings depth means Cincinnati manager Terry Francona faces an earlier bullpen decision than Washington does with Griffin, and the Reds’ bullpen workload from Wednesday’s extra-inning loss compounds that risk. Elly De La Cruz has hit safely in five straight games, and Sal Stewart collected three hits Wednesday, yet Cincinnati’s lineup depth beyond those two has produced sporadically during their 2-10 stretch.
Washington’s Bullpen Depth and Series Momentum
The Nationals’ relief corps, led by Gus Varland and PJ Poulin, handled high-leverage moments in Wednesday’s win and enters Thursday with fresher arms than a Cincinnati bullpen taxed by extra frames. Washington’s 44 home runs and 41 stolen bases reveal a versatile offense that generates runs through multiple paths, reducing reliance on any single matchup advantage against Burns. James Wood and Keibert Ruiz both homered in Tuesday’s series opener, and Daylen Lile’s Wednesday heroics, a 409-foot two-run blast in the 10th, extended a power surge that has produced 12 home runs across the Nationals’ last two games.
Cincinnati’s defensive lapses, including CJ Abrams’s throwing error that allowed a go-ahead run on Wednesday, compound the pressure on a young starter making his ninth MLB appearance. The Reds’ 10 losses in 12 games include multiple collapses from early leads, a pattern that undermines confidence in their ability to hold a narrow margin even if Burns pitches well. Washington’s comeback capability, demonstrated in rallying from 5-0 and 6-5 deficits Wednesday, creates a situational edge in late innings that the run line pricing does not fully capture.